Is it cheaper to rent or buy in the biggest US metros right now?
In most of them, renting — if the renter invests what they save. Nationally, Zillow's typical home is worth $371,774 and rents for $1,962 a month, a price-to-rent ratio of 15.8. Run through our model at 6.5% with 20% down, renting wins by about $45,000 over 10 years; the typical rent would have to be $2,207 a month (+12%) before buying came out ahead. The median metro's ratio is 17.2, and the spread is enormous: from 11.8 in Jackson, MS to 34.4 in San Jose, CA, where renting wins by $914,000.
| Across the 97 metros | Count |
|---|---|
| Renting-and-investing wins over 10 years | 92 |
| Buying wins over 10 years | 5 |
| Too close to call | 0 |
| Price-to-rent ratio under 15 (the classic "buy" zone) | 18 |
| Price-to-rent ratio over 20 (the classic "rent" zone) | 26 |
Verdicts use our default assumptions with only the metro's home value and rent changed: 20% down, a 30-year fixed at 6.5%, 3% appreciation, 2.5% rent growth, 7% investment return, property tax at 1.1% of value, standard deduction. See the caveats below before treating any single row as advice.
Which metros most favor renting?
The West Coast and the mountain metros, by a wide margin. The ten highest price-to-rent ratios among the 97 largest metros, and what the model says about each:
| Metro | Typical home | Typical rent | Ratio | Verdict (10y, 6.5%) | Rent that flips it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose, CA | $1,559,187 | $3,782 | 34.4 | Rent +$914,000 | $8,771 (+132%) |
| Salt Lake City, UT | $566,207 | $1,647 | 28.6 | Rent +$295,000 | $3,260 (+98%) |
| San Francisco, CA | $1,136,810 | $3,372 | 28.1 | Rent +$553,000 | $6,392 (+90%) |
| Los Angeles, CA | $964,934 | $2,944 | 27.3 | Rent +$454,000 | $5,424 (+84%) |
| Seattle, WA | $740,579 | $2,282 | 27.0 | Rent +$352,000 | $4,205 (+84%) |
| Ogden, UT | $516,604 | $1,631 | 26.4 | Rent +$249,000 | $2,991 (+83%) |
| San Diego, CA | $934,166 | $3,008 | 25.9 | Rent +$411,000 | $5,254 (+75%) |
| Portland, OR | $549,241 | $1,810 | 25.3 | Rent +$249,000 | $3,168 (+75%) |
| Provo, UT | $544,867 | $1,823 | 24.9 | Rent +$242,000 | $3,144 (+72%) |
| Oxnard, CA | $883,341 | $2,964 | 24.8 | Rent +$369,000 | $4,978 (+68%) |
Where does buying still win?
Where the ratio is lowest — mostly the Midwest, the South and the Rust Belt. The ten lowest price-to-rent ratios; note how thin some of the buying margins are even here:
| Metro | Typical home | Typical rent | Ratio | Verdict (10y, 6.5%) | Rent that flips it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson, MS | $213,701 | $1,506 | 11.8 | Buy +$29,000 | $1,350 (-10%) |
| El Paso, TX | $233,302 | $1,534 | 12.7 | Buy +$14,000 | $1,456 (-5%) |
| Pittsburgh, PA | $231,708 | $1,499 | 12.9 | Buy +$9,000 | $1,448 (-3%) |
| Toledo, OH | $205,580 | $1,294 | 13.2 | Rent +$2,000 | $1,306 (+1%) |
| Chicago, IL | $360,262 | $2,253 | 13.3 | Buy +$20,000 | $2,144 (-5%) |
| Lakeland, FL | $298,055 | $1,847 | 13.4 | Buy +$7,000 | $1,807 (-2%) |
| Columbia, SC | $256,240 | $1,562 | 13.7 | Rent +$3,000 | $1,581 (+1%) |
| New Orleans, LA | $263,842 | $1,604 | 13.7 | Rent +$3,000 | $1,622 (+1%) |
| Augusta, GA | $253,288 | $1,510 | 14.0 | Rent +$10,000 | $1,565 (+4%) |
| Syracuse, NY | $272,560 | $1,613 | 14.1 | Rent +$10,000 | $1,669 (+3%) |
"Rent that flips it" is the tipping-point rent: the monthly rent at which buying and renting-and-investing end the 10 years with equal net worth, and how far the metro's typical rent sits from it. A negative percentage means the typical rent is already above the threshold — buying is winning.